In the last few decades, Japan has been suffering from a declining fertility rate. While with an overpopulated world this might initially seem to be a good thing, it has many negative repercussions. Since 1975, the number of children born in Japan is insufficient to keep the population stable; meaning the overall population of Japan is shrinking. If the trend continues, it could mean some serious economic issues for the country.
There are many reasons for this trend, such as women marrying later, not marrying at all or simply deciding to have children later than usual. Also, people are living longer, so the proportion of older to younger people is growing. Statistics are showing a 1% decline in the overall population per year and projections estimate that around 40% of people in Japan will be over 65 by the year 2050.
This will lead to a smaller workforce, despite the need being the same or greater. Some of this can be solved by people extending the age of their retirement or by more women entering into the workforce – two practices already becoming popular. With the increased aged population, there will be a higher dependency rate. Currently, Japan has the highest in the world, and if it keeps rising, the cost of social services for the elderly will increase but have less working-class younger people to pay for it.
Of course, projecting 40 years into the future is dubious and even looking 10 years ahead is unreliable. It is not known what will happen for sure, only the results if things keep moving the way they currently are. Labor shortages may actually help by offsetting unemployment levels to some degree. Automation of jobs may remove a need for unskilled or semi-skilled labor and free up more people for academic fields. All these factors may eventually balance out and create a stronger work force, smarter and more capable of dealing with future problems.
